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Feb
27
The Economist predicts that independent voters will make all the difference in the 2008 presidential election.
This could mean good news for John McCain since he is a Republican who is attractive to independents.
Over the past decade or so, independents have been forced to act like either “soft” Republicans or “soft” Democrats—reluctant conscripts into one or other of America’s armies. But in this election the opposite is happening—more and more partisans are thinking and acting like independents. Polls show that at least two-thirds of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. A Washington Post poll last year showed that 77% of voters would consider voting for an independent.
By a chapter of accidents the Republicans have ended up with their one presidential candidate ideally suited to attracting independents. The party’s thumping in the 2006 mid-term election was almost entirely due to its waning fortunes among independent voters. Conservatives pulled the Republican lever in the usual numbers. But independents voted for Democrats by 57% to 39%. John McCain is thus a gift from heaven.
The very qualities of Mr McCain that infuriate Republican loyalists endear him to independents. He has frequently clashed with Mr Bush, a man whom independents loathe. He has wrestled with special interests in Washington, and repeatedly gone into battle with his own party, particularly over immigration reform. Mr McCain has demonstrated his strength among independents: he led the field among them by ten points in New York, 23 points in California and 31 points in Illinois.
This gives him a chance of pulling off a surprise upset in the general election.
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