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Jan
9
The Only Poll That Counts Is The Election
Filed Under Barack Obama, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, polls
Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire, much to the surprise of all of the pollsters who had predicted that Barack Obama’s Iowa win would have him steamroll over the New York Senator.
All of the polls showed Barack Obama in the lead – the chart below shows every poll predicted an Obama win.
Does this mean that people lie to pollsters?
Are the pollsters’ interview lists flawed — do they talk to people who don’t follow through and vote?
Or, was Hillary’s crying game a masterful last minute strategic move that tipped the election in her favor?
Could the news that Barack Obama had New Hampshire locked caused some supporters to assume they didn’t need to cast their ballots?
I’m sure the discrepancy between the opinion polls and the election results will be dissected and discussed for years to come in Political Science circles because it is interesting to witness such a disconnect from opinion polls and the subsequent election results.
Katharine Q. Sellye of the New York Times discusses the issue.
The TV guys are falling all over themselves to try to explain how the polls could have been so wrong. And pointing out, correctly, that the Clinton campaign itself had seen the storm clouds gathering. Tim Russert on MSNBC is reporting that the Clinton internal polls showed Mr. Obama winning by 14 points and Mr. Obama’s had him winning by 11 percent. …
But whether the polls were right or wrong, one thing is obvious: The only poll that counts, as the pols are fond of saying, is the one on Election Day. How many times do we in the media have to drill that lesson into our heads?
It’s a great reminder that nobody should assume a candidate has won or lost until the votes are actually counted.
